Fall Election: Premier Doer’s Strategy
Comments Closed and P.I.T.T. have started a worthwhile discussion. Will there be a fall election in Manitoba?
Historically, all signs would point to an answer: no. The last time an early election was called was in 1969. Walter Weir was a relatively new (but aged) leader, at the tail end of the Roblin dynasty. He miscalculated support and new NPD leader Ed Schreyer pulled off a bit of an upset over the favoured tories. Ed won the leadership of the party during the writ which is impressive. It’s my gut instinct that Doer and company will not risk the possibility of a love-in to occur with Hugh, especially in seat rich Winnipeg. He would look way to opportunistic to call an election with just over three years into a mandate.
Why is there talk about a fall election? Doer and his allies are hoping the tories will take the bait and start blowing money on election readiness. It was a tactic Filmon used on the Dippers effectively in the past. Causing a party to spend earlier than needed takes away much needed resources during a writ period. This is compounded by the Elections Finance Act changes which cripple the speed of the tories fund raising. Why that unconstitutional change was left unchallenged by Stuart Murray I will never know.
The timing of Spirited Energy has also caused pundits to think this is a blatant election ploy. Maybe it was, but the dismal failure of this project has caused some rethinking within his circle of brain trust.
I am predicting Doer will start slowly announcing things in the fall and see how the numbers look. If they feel the momentum swing back in the spring, they’ll trigger a vote. If they think all is lost, Doer will pull the pin and retire thus preserving his winning status for future consulting gigs. Besides if he lost, his electoral batting average would be 2-4. Ouch! Hard to believe the “invincible” Doer is already a three time loser. He would rather retire as a two time winner.
I disagree with Comments Closed, the timing of the departure of Kostyra and Sale means nothing other than feeding into the first theory: get them excited and start blowing money. Kostyra will still be pulling strings after his official retirement.
Some may argue that Doer will call an early election because he knows his stock is fading. It happens to all politicians. The rationale here would be wining a third majority and retire a year or two in. Three majorities would be an NDP record and something Gary Filmon couldn’t do.
In conclusion, politicians are like boxers before hanging up the gloves, they always think they have one last fight in them before getting knocked out. What kind of boxer is Gary Doer?
Historically, all signs would point to an answer: no. The last time an early election was called was in 1969. Walter Weir was a relatively new (but aged) leader, at the tail end of the Roblin dynasty. He miscalculated support and new NPD leader Ed Schreyer pulled off a bit of an upset over the favoured tories. Ed won the leadership of the party during the writ which is impressive. It’s my gut instinct that Doer and company will not risk the possibility of a love-in to occur with Hugh, especially in seat rich Winnipeg. He would look way to opportunistic to call an election with just over three years into a mandate.
Why is there talk about a fall election? Doer and his allies are hoping the tories will take the bait and start blowing money on election readiness. It was a tactic Filmon used on the Dippers effectively in the past. Causing a party to spend earlier than needed takes away much needed resources during a writ period. This is compounded by the Elections Finance Act changes which cripple the speed of the tories fund raising. Why that unconstitutional change was left unchallenged by Stuart Murray I will never know.
The timing of Spirited Energy has also caused pundits to think this is a blatant election ploy. Maybe it was, but the dismal failure of this project has caused some rethinking within his circle of brain trust.
I am predicting Doer will start slowly announcing things in the fall and see how the numbers look. If they feel the momentum swing back in the spring, they’ll trigger a vote. If they think all is lost, Doer will pull the pin and retire thus preserving his winning status for future consulting gigs. Besides if he lost, his electoral batting average would be 2-4. Ouch! Hard to believe the “invincible” Doer is already a three time loser. He would rather retire as a two time winner.
I disagree with Comments Closed, the timing of the departure of Kostyra and Sale means nothing other than feeding into the first theory: get them excited and start blowing money. Kostyra will still be pulling strings after his official retirement.
Some may argue that Doer will call an early election because he knows his stock is fading. It happens to all politicians. The rationale here would be wining a third majority and retire a year or two in. Three majorities would be an NDP record and something Gary Filmon couldn’t do.
In conclusion, politicians are like boxers before hanging up the gloves, they always think they have one last fight in them before getting knocked out. What kind of boxer is Gary Doer?
posted by Andy Fletcher | 4:59 PM
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