The Ultimate Achilles Heel of Today’s NDP: It’s Time for a Change
It doesn’t matter whether you think Gary Doer is a great guy or Hugh McFadyen is unproven in the elected game of politics. It doesn’t matter if you like Spirited Energy or the NDP’s stance on hallway medicine. It doesn’t matter if professors Paul Thomas or Allen Mills talk about the wise or unwise strategy of the incumbent administration.
What does matter is the phrase: it’s time for a change.
That is going to be the feeling going into the next campaign. If Hugh is wise, he will seize on it. If Gary is wise, he will retire on top and hope a Lorne Calvert comes out of the woodwork for the sake of the brand (which would be a testament to his leadership). If Gary sticks around one more time he risks a statistically higher chance of defeat.
Across Canada, only the Progressive Conservatives of Alberta and the NDP in Saskatchewan have won more than two elections in a row in recent years. In Saskatchewan, the PC’s were sent into the long-term wilderness (and had to change names) after a series of damaging scandals. Stu Murray took serious political advice from one of these guys. Need I say more?
Two terms is about the average lifespan of a provincial administration in Canada today. It’s usually about that time that a government runs out of ideas and the arrogance of “time in” starts to sink in. The NDP in Manitoba are on that track. From a policy standpoint, they are in cruise control, basking in the light of a popular premier. The types of rants and arrogance of the Blackberry Addicts (aka NDP staffers) speaks volumes more than the vacuous posts they make. They are starting to believe their own hype. Any reporter on the beat in 1999 could have said the same thing about tory staffers. They would have been correct in their opinion. When you start to think you are the natural governing party, you lose perspective. I call it “Legitis”. Blinders from reality. Hugh was around at the end of the Filmon dynasty and hopefully learned from that experience.
The reality is, the average person does not follow politics. When interviewed about what the main issues facing Manitobans are, 90% will say health care and education so as not to sound completely out of the loop with current affairs. That is not to say Manitobans are foolish or uneducated. Rather they are uninterested and many are cynical. It’s a sign of the modern times in democracy. People lead busy lives. Good political leaders can inspire greater interest and conversely, scandal can have the same impact (eg. ADSCAM).
I am not going out on a limb by saying the Doer administration is uninspiring. It’s greatest contribution has been that it has avoided major scandalous pitfalls, thanks in large part to Doer’s tight reins over the radical left in the party. They would have been a one term wonder if Doer had not played the Romanow card over the leftist elements within his caucus.
In spite of that, I believe the NDP government is going to follow the path of the Schreyer administration (should Gary stick around). Popular premier goes down to defeat surrounded by a weak caucus. The aging war horses in cabinet are looking a little more frail these days. Love him or hate him, Tim Sale had credibility within the ranks. He really believed in “the cause”. So did Jean Friesen. Newer editions to Doer’s cabinet such as Bjornson and Melnick are not heavy hitters in anyone’s books. Some would argue the same thing happened to the PC’s when true believers Clayton Manness and Don Orchard left in 1995. Current bench strength on the NDP is the lowest it has been since 1998. So is the fire in their collectivist bellies.
Another damaging blow is the drop in staff talent. Most hacks bail on a government right around this time. They parachute into the civil service or spin off into other opportunities as a result of increased connections. Same thing happened to Filmon’s staff and the same is happening with Doer’s. The “A” team gets replaced by the “B” team. It gets harder to keep a tight ship when this happens. Now before Dipper readers jump in and say "Ha! Hugh was a B team player!!!", I would argue he was an "A" team guy on a "B" team. I digress, enough with the A team talk. The point is staffers go through the same state of decline as politicians and this gets reflected in electoral results.
While scandals are a great read and sell many newspapers, the reality is that the old saying “it’s time for a change” usually leads to the beginning to an end of a government. While many political junkies love the intrigue of nominations and the blood sport of a campaign, most of us are left wanting more. Lunch bucket Joe simply wants to give the “other guys” a chance. Even high paid union workers who want to keep more of their money. There are more people like that than junkies like us. They decide who wins. Perhaps that’s a good thing.
----
So I see the folks at the Sun have pulled back on the cost of Spirited Energy. Interesting. More information on the real and total cost of that program needs to be shared with the public. Care to open the books Gary?
What does matter is the phrase: it’s time for a change.
That is going to be the feeling going into the next campaign. If Hugh is wise, he will seize on it. If Gary is wise, he will retire on top and hope a Lorne Calvert comes out of the woodwork for the sake of the brand (which would be a testament to his leadership). If Gary sticks around one more time he risks a statistically higher chance of defeat.
Across Canada, only the Progressive Conservatives of Alberta and the NDP in Saskatchewan have won more than two elections in a row in recent years. In Saskatchewan, the PC’s were sent into the long-term wilderness (and had to change names) after a series of damaging scandals. Stu Murray took serious political advice from one of these guys. Need I say more?
Two terms is about the average lifespan of a provincial administration in Canada today. It’s usually about that time that a government runs out of ideas and the arrogance of “time in” starts to sink in. The NDP in Manitoba are on that track. From a policy standpoint, they are in cruise control, basking in the light of a popular premier. The types of rants and arrogance of the Blackberry Addicts (aka NDP staffers) speaks volumes more than the vacuous posts they make. They are starting to believe their own hype. Any reporter on the beat in 1999 could have said the same thing about tory staffers. They would have been correct in their opinion. When you start to think you are the natural governing party, you lose perspective. I call it “Legitis”. Blinders from reality. Hugh was around at the end of the Filmon dynasty and hopefully learned from that experience.
The reality is, the average person does not follow politics. When interviewed about what the main issues facing Manitobans are, 90% will say health care and education so as not to sound completely out of the loop with current affairs. That is not to say Manitobans are foolish or uneducated. Rather they are uninterested and many are cynical. It’s a sign of the modern times in democracy. People lead busy lives. Good political leaders can inspire greater interest and conversely, scandal can have the same impact (eg. ADSCAM).
I am not going out on a limb by saying the Doer administration is uninspiring. It’s greatest contribution has been that it has avoided major scandalous pitfalls, thanks in large part to Doer’s tight reins over the radical left in the party. They would have been a one term wonder if Doer had not played the Romanow card over the leftist elements within his caucus.
In spite of that, I believe the NDP government is going to follow the path of the Schreyer administration (should Gary stick around). Popular premier goes down to defeat surrounded by a weak caucus. The aging war horses in cabinet are looking a little more frail these days. Love him or hate him, Tim Sale had credibility within the ranks. He really believed in “the cause”. So did Jean Friesen. Newer editions to Doer’s cabinet such as Bjornson and Melnick are not heavy hitters in anyone’s books. Some would argue the same thing happened to the PC’s when true believers Clayton Manness and Don Orchard left in 1995. Current bench strength on the NDP is the lowest it has been since 1998. So is the fire in their collectivist bellies.
Another damaging blow is the drop in staff talent. Most hacks bail on a government right around this time. They parachute into the civil service or spin off into other opportunities as a result of increased connections. Same thing happened to Filmon’s staff and the same is happening with Doer’s. The “A” team gets replaced by the “B” team. It gets harder to keep a tight ship when this happens. Now before Dipper readers jump in and say "Ha! Hugh was a B team player!!!", I would argue he was an "A" team guy on a "B" team. I digress, enough with the A team talk. The point is staffers go through the same state of decline as politicians and this gets reflected in electoral results.
While scandals are a great read and sell many newspapers, the reality is that the old saying “it’s time for a change” usually leads to the beginning to an end of a government. While many political junkies love the intrigue of nominations and the blood sport of a campaign, most of us are left wanting more. Lunch bucket Joe simply wants to give the “other guys” a chance. Even high paid union workers who want to keep more of their money. There are more people like that than junkies like us. They decide who wins. Perhaps that’s a good thing.
----
So I see the folks at the Sun have pulled back on the cost of Spirited Energy. Interesting. More information on the real and total cost of that program needs to be shared with the public. Care to open the books Gary?
posted by Andy Fletcher | 9:26 PM
5 Comments:
I might agree with you, but even a tired Doer will hold on against a novice and lightweight like Hugie.
Also if the Dippers have a weak caucus, what does that say about the Tories? There are still a ton of tired old usless Tory MLA's from rural Manitoba that make Conrad Santos look good.
The tories have weak elements too. However, they are having nomination challenges. Are the NDP?
McFadyen is better than Doer was in 1988.
Maybe in nine years McFadyen can win government too!
It all depends on who Hugh Mcfadyen has advising him.
Judging from their press releases, which can't punch a hole in a wet paper bag, Hugh needs a new bunch of advisors.
It all depends on who Hugh Mcfadyen has advising him.
Judging from their press releases, which can't punch a hole in a wet paper bag, Hugh needs a new bunch of advisors.
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